Author: commtims

     When we last talked, I was preparing for a road trip to see Barack Hussein Obama become the first Halfrican-American President of the United States.

                                     
     My wife Cindy and I were early supporters of his, believe that he will make a difference, and wanted to be part of the excitement.

     And we made it. And we were part of the excitement, but only an itty-bitty teeny-weenie little part !… Here’s what I mean.
     
                                     

                           

     That’s me with the double knit cap, six layers of thermals and a scruffy beard ! … OK, quit looking, you’ll never find me!
                                 …………………………………………………………
     So it was kind of like Woodstock, in spirit, and size, but lacked the drugs and the mud. And it covered all generations, had one specific purpose, and was over in just a few hours. A few, very cold hours!

     But the people were fine!  ………. all two million of them!  … We met folks from San Francisco, New Orleans, Ohio, Philadelphia, Michigan, Los Angeles, Georgia, fellow Floridians, even a smattering of Canadians, Haitians, Jamaicans, and a lone Republican. 

     We parked about ten miles outside of the City and took their wonderful Metro in. Then we walked, and walked ,and walked.


                                                      

     We made it to the Washington Monument…. Only 15 blocks more and we could be right up there rubbing elbows with Barack and Michelle, Malia and Sasha !… But it was not to be. About one million of the folks had trekked in before us, so we just settled in for the show. 


                                      

                  We could see the Capitol, where Obama was sitting, and we had some binoculars, so we tried to zero in on the Obamas, but this is all we got.

            
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

      But we felt content. All two million of us! Obama was the new President. Our Country felt renewed.

     We shuffled off through the streets of the Nations Capital, Mission Accomplished, and ever so slowly made our way to our cars, our cities, our lives. 

     We’ll have a story for the grand kids.

     Good Luck to America.

                                
     

     

    

         ing   ….  A new pastime! … Just this week alone, over 2500 of you have visited this site…..  Thanks!   …. You’ve been reading about the upcoming City Elections in Fort Lauderdale. Buzz is beginning to build!

     . Conducting the Voter Polling was quite interesting, but difficult.  But it’s a good poll, scientific. Of course, those that didn’t fare well say the poll is bogus, and those that did fare well are pointing to it as proof of their viability! …..Politics !  ….  Truth is, we won’t really know who is going to win until election day!

      In case you are wondering, we don’t have results for  District III. It’s the poorest community, and unfortunately, we didn’t get enough completed surveys in that District to justify valid analysis.

      We wish all the candidates in all the Districts good luck, and thank them all for opening themselves up to the scrutiny and abuse of the citizenry!  
                            ……………………………………………………………………………………………….

                                             Some facts about this blog

     It’s been one year since I posted my first entry at  “Tim Smith’s Fort Lauderdale” and as you have noticed, I’m having a ball. And by the way, you guys crack me up!

             Here are some stats: 
      
     ………over 53,000 people entered the blog this year  (or my mother is just really trying to help!)

     ………80 of you subscribe to the blog ,it’s free, (and you’ll get all new posts automatically)

     …….. we shared 98 blog posts with you, comprising 58,647 words. 

     …….. The most popular posts dealt with politicians who said insane things or had hidden rap  
              sheets….. Nearly as popular were the posts dealing with wealthy politicians, the Police   
              and their Chiefs, and the ongoing saga of the local crackhead felons …… AKA –
              The Railroad Gang. You also seemed to really enjoy the “Just for Fun” category.
            
              If you have some ideas about things you think I should be covering, send me a private e-mail to Tim@TimSmith.com 

      OK, Cindy and I are off to D.C. to brave the weather and see (from a distance) our 44th President 
              
              sworn in……….  We’ll take photos to share….See you next week…. Tim
                 

     
      

     

      

      

     Now this one looks close!

     It pits City Commissioner Charlotte Rodstrom, wife of County Commissioner John Rodstrom, against the Central Beach Alliance President Steven Glassman. A third candidate, businessman Howard Elfman is trailing somewhere back in the pack.
                       
                                         VS.                                                
                    Rodstrom and Rodstrom                                             Glassman

     The ironic thing about this race is that Glassman was instrumental in Rodstrom’s triumph to the Commission seat just three years ago. In that race, Glassman and other beach activists turned out an enormous beach vote for Rodstrom and she came from behind to beat Jon Albee in the General Election. Glassman now says “he was wrong”. In his campaign appearances, he says that Rodstrom is ineffective and divisive, and says she needs to go.

     But Rodstrom is part of a political dynasty, a winning one, and all stops seem to be being pulled to orchestrate her re-election. Husband John is raking in the dough for her and Rodstrom is bicycling her way across the District stomping for votes.

     Here’s what our survey showed”

     It’s close.

     First off, Rodstrom has gigantic name recognition in her District at 94%, where Glassman is only at 45%. He will need to reach far more “Super Voters” by Election Day in order to win.  Rodstrom’s Positive Number is 67% and Glassman’s is 58%, but Glassman’s “hard positives” (the die-hard supporters) is 50%, where Rodstrom’s “hard positives” fall slightly behind at 48%. 

     On the negative side, Rodstrom’s “hard negatives” (folks that will probably vote against her no matter what) is at a troubling 17%, compared to Glassman’s 7%.

     Elfman doesn’t seem to have made an impact yet, with a name recognition at only 22%.

     This is a race to watch!

     

    

      

     District 1……

     ….   the Election Poll Results are in ! …..

     It’s where the haves live. No Poverty. Very little crime.   

     District 1  covers the northern portion of the City, and has neighborhoods with names like “Bay Colony”, “Imperial Point”, and “Coral Ridge Country Club Estates”.
 
     So who’s running strong Tim ?,  you ask….

     Well, as I’ve already mentioned in earlier posts, Candidate Nobody is also ahead in District 1. 
I can say that because our data shows that more than half of those “Super Voters”  that were polled chose either “no opinion” or “don’t know them”,  on one or more of the candidates.

     But there are also some trends and interesting tidbits at work in District 1.

     First , it’s clear that the incumbent, Commissioner Christine Teel  is the most well known name on the ballot. She came in with a healthy 81% name recognition of District I voters. But former Police Chief Bruce Roberts, who was in the news quite often himself over the years, polled a respectable name recognition of 62%. The third candidate, local condo lawyer Inger Garcia, trailed way back at 35%. 

      The findings in District 1 were somewhat unusual. 

                                                                                       

      Commissioner Teel had more “Hard Negatives” .This is a response of 1 ( on a scale of 1 to 5). Teel was at 24%, Roberts at 6%, and Garcia at 22%.  

     Conversely, although less people were willing or able to rate Garcia at all, of the ones that did, she won the “Hard Positives” ( 5  on a scale of 1 to 5)  with 33%, compared to Roberts at 19%, and Teel at 14%.

     Roberts blew away the field with a generally positive rating of nearly 90%, but Teel still had the highest percentage of “persuadable” voters, coming in at 43%, compared to Roberts at 37%, and Garcia at 11%.

     It was difficult, if not impossible to draw strong conclusions in this race, as the numbers often seemed at cross purposes, but it seems apparent that Teel has some explaining to do in order to be reelected. 

    ………………  OK, I’ll be back with the District II results real soon!…..

     

     

    

       The District IV Commissioner race might be a sign of a changing City. 

     Four political neophytes have filed to run for the seat, currently occupied by term – limited  Commissioner Cindi Hutchinson.  

     The District, which covers most of the south side of the City, was represented by Commissioner Jim Naugle from 1985 to 1991. There are more Fort Lauderdale “natives” living there than any other District. It’s highly traditional – conservative. They even have a mandated historic neighborhood in the District, with bungalows built near the turn of the century.

     So when the 2009 race sported a favorite son, who’s Uncle was a famous local State Representative, you might expect him to be a shoe in.

     But maybe not.

     The “native” is local lawyer Romney Rogers. 
                                        
                                                                              
                                                                                Rogers

     This weekend’s poll showed Rogers with a 52% name recognition, the highest among the four competitors. But his “positive” ratings, among those who knew of him well enough to rate him, were only  56%.
      
     What’s most interesting is that we also generated poll numbers about some current politicians, and Jim Naugle’s “Hard Negative” number in District IV was nearly identical to Rogers “Hard Negative” number, at 32% . “Hard Negatives” and “Hard Positives” are considered quite intractable. Could be that Romney is being swept up in the negative coat tails of the current Mayor ?  

     One competitor, local lawyer Coleman Prewitt, though lesser known than Rogers at a 44% name recognition, reached a surprisingly high “positive” rate, among those who knew of him well enough to rate him, of 89%. Prewitt’s Positive rating tied Jack Seiler’s as the highest in the entire poll. Seems that when people get to know him, they like him.
 
                                                                     
                                                                       Prewitt
     Local lawyer Jim Lewis also generated a name recognition rating of 44%, but his positive rating was only at 40%.

     Local businessman George Trodella, who very recently entered the race, chalked up a 17% name recognition, and is not yet showing support.

     I’ll be adding the other District’s poll outcomes next, some VERY INTERESTING  things to come.

     

    

     There are only 29 days to go until the residents of Fort Lauderdale start the process to choose their leaders for the next three years, a new Mayor and four City Commissioners.

                    It’s the Primary Election first, on February 10th.Then, if no one won at least 50% of the vote in the Primary, a run-off Election will take place on March 10th, and the new Mayor and City Commissioners will be finalized.

     There are a slew of candidates in all the Districts and in the Mayor’s race this time around. That’s probably due to the fact that term limits kick in this year for the first time in the City’s 100- year history.

     So, there has been much speculation among the residents that follow such things about just who might be rising to the top of the political heap. And I am one of those citizens that follow such things.

     So we conducted a poll. A telephone poll. The poll was formulated by a professional campaign company, Political Strategies Inc, and conducted by a group of sharp local residents. 
     Those that were polled were the best voters in the City, ones that voted in the most recent National and Local Elections. In the Political biz, we call them the “Super Voters”. They make up the 10% to 15% of the population that actually vote on a regular basis.  

     So who’s ahead already, you ask!

     This is what we can tell for sure, so far.

     The “Super Voters” are clearly not yet ready for February 10th. Maybe it’s voter fatigue from the tumultuous Presidential Election just passed, or maybe it’s just a little too early to poll, but it’s pretty clear that a majority of the electorate is not firmly committed to their candidate.

     If we had to call the races today, the Commission might made up of Mayor Nobody and his four Commissioners, Commissioners Nobody, Nobody, Nobody, and Nobody! 

                                                                 

    But that doesn’t mean trends are not forming, and challenges to an eventual win are not firming up. 

     The race for Mayor looks like this, so far!
 
     Former State Representative Jack Seiler appears to be trending ahead of the pact. Only 64% of the respondents knew who he was, or knew enough to form a judgement, but of those folks, 89% gave him a positive rating.

     Former City Commissioner Dean Trantalis appears to be back some lengths. More “Super Voters” knew him, or knew enough to form a judgement of him, 71% , but of those,  only 47% of those offered him a positive rating.

      Former Lt. Colonel Earl Rynerson, a longshot for sure, is only known by 36% of the respondents, and his positive rating so far is just 41%.

     Former F.B.I. Agent Steve Rossi, is least known of all the candidates, with just 31% name recognition, and holds a positive rating of just 29%.

     Lots can still happen. Get ready for the onslaught, when the candidates will undoubtedly be discussing their competitor’s shortcomings, and touting  their own strengths. In Politics, 29 days can be an eternity!


     I’ll discuss the results of the four District Commissioner races in my next blog posting!..
     
     

     

         

      Over the last few weeks, Fort Lauderdale Mayoral Candidate Earl Rynerson has been the target of an e-mail campaign surrounding some of his personal information.

                                          

     Seems one of the other “camps” did a thorough Public Records request, and found what they perceived to be juicy negative information. They have been sending it to any and all News Outlets they could find.  Former Sun-Sentinel columnist Buddy Nevins, through his blog,  published the info, but  I felt that a lot of the information was personal in nature and therefore not appropriate to post.

     Who is responsible for the “leaked” information is still a mystery, because the sender has been disguising  his or her identity. 

     Rynerson says he has had enough of it and has just sent in this response …… Here’s Earl! …



I wanted to comment on the recent postings I have been hearing about me. First, my financial matters. In the 35+ years I have had credit cards, and the hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of dollars that have gone through my accounts, I have had two (2) disagreements with card companies, both of which occurred 5-6 years ago,

One was for an African trip where deposits were made 3 months before the trip. Travel accommodations had in fact not been made and a repurchase had to be made overseas. Because the original deposits were made earlier than 60 days prior, the credit card agency has not (to date), been willing to reimburse me. The second was for a bad car repair, (the car breaking down on the way back from the repair company). Even though both of these amounts constituted a relatively small amount ($5-6K), I felt that the principal of the issue necessitated me to take a stand.

In both these instances, I felt that proper service was not provided, and I disputed (and will continue to dispute) these two charges. It is important to know how I feel about issues like this because, as Mayor, I intend to look at the City’s swollen budget closely, and will make sure that the public gets the service they should be getting for the taxpayer dollar spent. If I find that’s not the case, I will be as tenacious there as I am in my personal life.

I have also heard reports of some “spicy” Internet sites being talked about. I personally feel that what two consensual adults do (or don’t do) in the privacy of their own home is no one’s business but their own, and I will protect those rights, both for myself and for others. We as a city have gone through several years of an Administration trying to impose morals and judgments onto others, to the detriment of everyone. I feel that we need to stop trying to force our beliefs, opinions and morals on other people and allow our city to become more progressive. We need to embrace the diversity that we as a community have.

Now, let’s get back to the issues that really matter to voters, the Budget, Property Taxes and future economic vitality of our City. Thank you!

Lt. Colonel Earl Rynerson

     It’s what everyone wants to know……. Who’s ahead? ………Who’s going to win?

                                                           

                   

     The Finish Line is in sight. The Primary is only about 4 weeks away! And only one of the four Fort Lauderdale Mayoral Candidates and only one Commissioner Candidate from each District will cross the line first.

    

          Will the favorite win? 

                          ……. that’s the safe bet….. but how about the one that puts  

       in the hard work…….keeps on going  … never gives up !              

                                                      
   …….and then there’s the longshot, he may not look like the winner, but anything is possible in politics!                                                   
                                                                            ………

                                                                                                 ……  and never count out the unusual candidates, sometimes they draw the affections of the voters!   

               
       ……………. Since everybody’s wondering if anyone has an edge,  we decided to try and find out !

     So we’re about to conduct a Voter Poll . This Friday, after the Candidate Qualifying period is closed, this blog will be calling 100’s and 100’s of the City’s Super Voters! …..Please answer the phone!

      We’ve had a professional company prepare the survey, and they tell me that it should be quite accurate. We will ask those that almost always vote in City Elections who they are currently leaning to, and why. We will try and find out if their support is firm or flimsy. We will ask if they’ve even heard of the candidates! Should be quite revealing.

     We will be giving you the results early next week!. Can you wait?

     It’s shaping up to be the biggest Mayoral Money Showdown in the history of Fort Lauderdale.

     With the end of the Jim Naugle era quickly approaching, the four men that are seeking the Fort Lauderdale Mayoral seat are expected to report  funds collected  at well over $250,000 ! This will set a record for the City, and it will be done with one of the most restrictive Campaign Finance Laws in the country.
      Donations in Fort Lauderdale are restricted to people only. That means Corporations, PACS, Unions etc. cannot donate. Also, the maximum contribution is $250, where most cities allow up to $500 in contributions.  

                                                                    
                                                             Goodbye Jim

     The normal turnout for Mayoral primaries in Fort Lauderdale is generally only around 10,000 people, (though the population is at about 175,000) and if that holds for this election, each and every voter will have at least $25 spent on them to secure their vote. 

     The cash leader, so far, might be former State Representative Jack Seiler. Though he trailed former Lt. Colonel Earl Rynerson at the end of the 2008 third quarter campaign reports (Rynerson had $90,000 total, with $12,000 raised and $77,000  loaned to his campaign ), Seiler now reports about $130,000 in total funds raised, and no loans. The Third Quarter reports had Trantalis far behind at $16,000 and Rossi at about $3000.

                                                                             
                                           Seiler                                                Rynerson  

     The other campaigns were unavailable this morning to report on their current totals, but some sources speculate that Trantalis might have done much better in this quarter’s money race. 

     The piles of cash means the candidates will all reach out in every possible way. Two camps have verified television commercials, one is talking billboards, and the usual mailers have already begun to trickle in.

     So stay tuned, and clear out your mailboxes. The madness will start in earnest soon!

            

      

     

     

     

    

    Our City is nearing it’s 100th birthday.  It will happen in March of 2011. 

     That makes us a relatively young city, nationally speaking, but we are a well known and important City. Unfortunately, we are a City that never seems to know exactly where it’s headed.

     But a serious course correction may be in the offing, just in time for our Centennial !  

     The City Election will be settled by early March, and due to the first – ever term limits kicking in, we are guaranteed at least a majority of new leaders. In fact, it’s quite possible that we could have a complete new set of leaders. Some in the community even whisper about a “clean sweep”. Add to that the always tentative status of the City’s Manager, George Gretsas, and you are talking about Obama-like Change!

     But regardless of whether the two non term limited incumbents ( Rodstrom and Teel ) retain their seats, everyone in the community is talking “Vision”. 

     As a matter of fact, three of the Mayoral candidates, Rossi, Rynerson, and Seiler, and a couple of Commission candidates, Glassman ( from District II ) and Prewitt (from District IV) are currently reading the “New Century, New City” Vision Report,  a comprehensive plan that over 100 leading Fort Lauderdale Citizens published in 1995 and has gone substantially unrealized. 

     There has been talk of “monumental changes” . For starters, all the candidates seem to agree that the new Commission will play better together than the current one. And there’s even been talk about changing the structure of the Commission; modifying the  District Representation system,  changes in the number of Commissioners, and an old idea has resurfaced, often pushed by Naugle, to change to a Strong Mayor form of government.

     It just might be an exciting New Year – New City !